The gamble of dumping PDP and Atiku for APC and Tinubu raises questions about whether he can break the jinx of failed handovers.
Why 2027 is all eyes on Adamawa as Fintiri vows Tinubu must win, Atiku vows revenge
By Tom Garba
To understand Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, one must first understand Adamawa State, where political transitions have often been marked by crises, bitter rivalries and power struggles. The state has a history of turbulent handovers, with successive administrations facing significant political challenges.
Former Governor Boni Haruna's tenure was followed by political tensions surrounding the transition to Murtala Nyako. Nyako himself was dramatically removed from office through impeachment in 2014. His successor, Senator Muhammadu Umaru Jibrilla Bindow, also faced internal party divisions and political opposition before losing his re-election bid to Fintiri in 2019. Fintiri subsequently secured a second term in 2023, defeating Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani in a fiercely contested election that culminated in a supplementary poll and a controversial initial declaration. Against this backdrop, Fintiri's political journey has been anything but smooth.
Fintiri's rise began when he served as Speaker of the Adamawa State House of Assembly. Following Nyako's impeachment in July 2014, he became acting governor and managed the state during a politically volatile period. He contested the 2015 governorship election but lost before returning in 2019 to defeat the incumbent, Bindow. Four years later, he overcame Binani in another dramatic contest, retaining his mandate amid intense political controversy.
On infrastructure, Fintiri's administration has recorded notable achievements. Roads have been constructed and rehabilitated across the state's 21 local government areas, connecting communities and improving transportation. His government also introduced flyovers to Adamawa's urban landscape, including projects in Jimeta and at the Mubi Roundabout. These developments have become prominent features of his administration's infrastructure drive.
His government has also pursued improvements in healthcare and the civil service. General hospitals have received attention, while regular salary payments, bonuses, Sallah welfare packages and a 13th-month salary benefit have helped improve workers' welfare. The administration has also addressed promotion arrears and pension and gratuity obligations, measures that have earned it support among some public servants and retirees.
Other projects include the ongoing International Conference Centre, shopping complexes and school construction across the state. Through empowerment initiatives targeting women, youths and small businesses, the government has also sought to improve livelihoods and extend financial support to residents at the grassroots.
Another defining feature of Fintiri's administration has been the creation of additional emirates and chiefdoms. The decision has been welcomed by some minority communities, who view it as an opportunity to secure greater traditional recognition and cultural identity after years of perceived marginalisation. However, such changes have also carried political and traditional sensitivities, making the policy one of the administration's most consequential decisions.
THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT — THE BIGGEST PIT
Beyond governance and infrastructure, Fintiri's political realignment may prove to be the defining test of his leadership. His decision to leave the Peoples Democratic Party, the platform on which he won the governorship in 2019 and 2023, and align with the All Progressives Congress has unsettled sections of his former political base.
The move is particularly significant because of his previous relationship with former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, a prominent Adamawa politician who is now associated with the African Democratic Congress. Atiku's supporters believe Fintiri owes much of his political rise to the PDP network and the support he received from influential party figures during difficult moments, including the 2023 governorship contest.
Fintiri's open endorsement of President Bola Tinubu has therefore deepened the political divide between him and some of his former allies. In Adamawa's political circles, the question is whether the governor's decision to support Tinubu will strengthen his influence or undermine his standing among voters who remain loyal to Atiku. The realignment has also intensified rivalries within the political establishment, with figures such as Chief Maurice Vunobolki and other opponents challenging his political dominance.
THE 2027 HURDLE — CAN HE HAND OVER SUCCESSFULLY?
As the 2027 elections approach, Fintiri faces another major political test, particularly if he pursues a Senate seat representing Adamawa North. The contest is expected to be difficult, given the presence of rival political forces and the strength of opposition figures seeking to challenge his influence.
The PDP, ADC and other political platforms could complicate the ruling party's calculations, depending on their candidates, alliances and ability to mobilise voters. Adamawa's electoral history suggests that political structures and federal influence alone may not guarantee victory. The opposition will be looking to exploit any divisions within the APC and among the governor's former allies.
Fintiri's political future is therefore tied to his ability to manage competing interests while consolidating his achievements and maintaining support across the state. Adamawa politics is known for its shifting alliances and unpredictable outcomes, making any confident forecast of the 2027 elections premature.
THE ADVANTAGES HE HOLDS
Fintiri nevertheless enters the period with significant advantages. As the incumbent governor, he has access to the state's political structure and can point to infrastructure projects, civil service reforms and empowerment programmes as evidence of his performance. His alignment with the APC also places him within the party controlling the Federal Government, potentially giving him access to a wider political network.
However, federal power has not always translated into electoral success in Adamawa. The opposition's victories and strong challenges in previous elections demonstrate that local dynamics, candidate appeal and voter sentiment can outweigh expectations. Whether the APC can convert its national position into an advantage in 2027 remains an open question.
Fintiri's recent 59th birthday celebration also provided an opportunity for political leaders and associates to reflect on his administration's record. Former Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo was among the dignitaries at the event, where his leadership and achievements were discussed. The unveiling of a foundation aimed at supporting less privileged people was another notable feature of the celebration. Its long-term impact will depend on its capacity to sustain meaningful interventions beyond the occasion.
ALL EYES ON ADAMAWA
In 2027, attention will turn to Adamawa as Fintiri and Atiku find themselves on opposing sides of a consequential political contest. Fintiri has declared his determination to help secure victory for Tinubu, while Atiku will be seeking to strengthen his own political position, particularly in his home state.
The contest will test whether Fintiri can navigate the consequences of leaving the PDP, manage the fallout from his political break with Atiku and preserve his influence amid growing rivalries. It will also determine whether his record in office can translate into sustained political support.
Can Fintiri break Adamawa's history of turbulent political transitions and successfully hand over power to a successor? Can he overcome the political risks associated with his realignment while capitalising on the infrastructure and social programmes of his administration?
A successful transition would mark a significant moment in the state's political history. Failure could expose the limits of incumbency, federal backing and personal political influence in a state where alliances can shift rapidly.
The months ahead will be crucial in determining whether Fintiri can shape the political outcome on his own terms or become another leader caught in Adamawa's unpredictable political cycle.
Tom Garba, ANIPR, SPSP, is a policy, political and crisis analyst. He writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State.
