By Eniola Olurankinse
The road to 2027 is already cracking the opposition before campaigns even start. The grand plan was simple: collapse the major opposition blocs into the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and present one candidate against the ruling party.
That plan is now on life support. Peter Obi, 2023’s “Third Force” flagbearer, has walked away from ADC talks. Multiple insiders say the reason is familiar: Atiku Abubakar won’t step down, and Obi believes he cannot win either a consensus arrangement or a primary inside ADC.
Obi’s camp is now looking to the National Democratic Congress, NDC, where the presidential ticket would be handed to him unopposed. In political circles, they call it a “platter of gold.”
The move reopens a bitter question from 2023: What exactly is the difference between Bola Tinubu’s public “Emi l’okan” — it’s my turn — and Peter Obi’s quieter brand of consensus-seeking politics? And in 2027, which looks more desperate?
To understand that, we must define two doctrines. The first is Tinubu’s Entitlement by Investment. On June 2, 2022, in Abeokuta, Ogun State, he told party delegates in Yoruba and English: “E gba mi o. Emi l’okan. It’s my turn. I have served you for many years… If not for me, Buhari wouldn’t be president. He tried the first time, he failed. Second time, he failed. Third time, he failed. I said, if you want to win, go and bring me.”
Tinubu’s method is to enter the arena. Five days after that speech, he faced 13 APC aspirants at the June 2022 Eagle Square primary and won with 1,271 delegate votes. His philosophy is transactional: power is a debt the party owes for years of loyalty, funding, and building the South-West bloc.
The risk is public. You can lose, and the cameras will capture it. Critics call it the brazen godfatherism. Supporters point to his bluntness: “You have not been president before. It is my turn,” he told the delegates. At least he fights for what he wants and says it out loud.
The second doctrine is Obi’s Entitlement by Morality. In May 2022, Obi resigned from PDP days before the presidential primary, citing “recent developments that are at variance with my persona and principles.” He joined Labour Party and emerged flagbearer unopposed. In 2019, he was also Atiku’s vice-presidential pick by consensus, not primary.
Obi’s method is to avoid primaries he might lose. In multiple interviews, he has distanced himself from raw ambition. On Arise TV in January 2023, he said: “I am not desperate to be president. I am desperate to see Nigeria work.” On CNN with Zain Asher, he repeated: “If it is not going to be me, let it be someone who can do the job.”
Yet his actions suggest a belief that others should yield. His philosophy is that power should go to the “most competent” or to represent a “new order,” so others should step down. The risk is reputational. He gets labeled as running from competition and dependent on goodwill rather than delegates. Critics say it’s an entitlement dressed as humility. Supporters call it strategy: why enter a fight they claim is rigged?
This brings us to 2027 and the ADC breakup. The opposition’s plan of one party, one candidate assumes someone will step down. But Atiku, who will be 80 in 2027, views this as his last realistic shot at the presidency. He controls the PDP’s legacy delegates now negotiating inside ADC. He won’t step down.
Obi’s calculus is straightforward. If ADC chooses consensus, Atiku’s structure wins. If ADC goes to primary, Atiku’s delegates win. So Obi leaves for NDC, where the ticket is unchallenged. The immediate result: a repeat of 2023’s split opposition, to the ruling party’s advantage.
But history complicates the moral argument around Atiku. In 1993, during his first attempt at the presidency, Atiku stepped down for M.K.O. Abiola, a fellow southerner, at the Jos convention of the Social Democratic Party, SDP. He was 46 then, a rising force, yet he yielded to Abiola in the name of party unity and Southern solidarity.
That sacrifice is now being thrown back at him. In 2027, at 80, in what is likely his final attempt, many in Obi’s camp and Southern political circles are asking Atiku to step down again — this time for Peter Obi, another southerner. The question cuts both ways: If he did it at 46 for Abiola, why not at 80 for Obi? Atiku’s loyalists counter: “After contesting six times and waiting 30 years, why should he step down to crown someone else twice?”
Which brings us to desperation. Desperation isn’t loud versus quiet. It’s how badly you need power and what you’re willing to do to get it. Tinubu’s desperation is overt — he names it, owns it, and fights in the open. “Emi l’okan,” he said, pointing to himself. Obi’s desperation is tactical — he avoids fights he may lose and finds safer paths to the ballot, while telling Channels TV in 2022: “I don’t have to be president to make an impact.”
Both men believe they should be president. One says, “I earned it.” The other says, “Nigeria needs me, so make way.” The table tells the story: Tinubu admits ambition; Obi downplays it. Tinubu defeats opponents; Obi asks them to see reason. Tinubu risks public loss; Obi risks the “party-hopping” tag.
For voters, three things matter. First, Structure vs Sentiment. ADC with Atiku inherits governors and local government networks. NDC with Obi starts from near-zero. Nigerian elections still reward structure. Second, Precedent. In 2022 Obi left PDP to avoid a primary; in 2027 he’d be leaving ADC for the same reason. Patterns stick. Third, The Atiku Factor. If he won’t step down now, and Obi won’t contest him, the unity project dies.
“Emi l’okan” and “Step down for me” are both claims of entitlement. One charges through the front door. The other looks for a side door. In 2023, Nigerians chose between them. In 2027, they may have to choose again — unless the opposition chooses for them by splitting first. The ballot won’t ask who was more desperate. It will ask: Which kind of ambition produces a plan that can actually win?
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