A public opinion survey conducted by Greenfield Analytics Consortium has projected Aliyu Abdulhameed Abbati as the leading aspirant in the race for the All Progressives Congress ticket for the Adamawa Central Senatorial District ahead of the party’s primaries.
The survey, which followed an eight-week field assessment across the senatorial district, reportedly ranked Abbati highest in favourability and acceptability among aspirants contesting for the APC ticket.
According to the report coordinated by data analyst Dr. Suleiman Bashir, the exercise sampled 6,500 respondents drawn from the seven local government areas that make up Adamawa Central Senatorial District.
The study adopted a combination of stratified, cluster, and simple random sampling techniques to ensure broad representation and reduce statistical bias.
Respondents were selected from Hong, Gombi, Song, Yola South, Yola North, Fufore, and Girei local government areas, with the sampling designed to reflect differences in gender, age, religion, occupation, educational background, and urban-rural spread.
The report stated that respondents assessed aspirants based on factors such as legislative competence, grassroots acceptance, accessibility, public trust, party loyalty, leadership experience, empowerment capacity, and electability ahead of the general election.
Researchers also applied inferential statistical models, including Chi-square testing with a five per cent margin of error, to validate voter preferences across demographic categories.
At the end of the exercise, Abbati emerged with 34 per cent of the total weighted responses to top the survey.
He was followed by Amb. Hapsat Ibrahim Modibbo with 20 per cent, while Engr. Dr. Aishatu Aliyu Umar secured 15 per cent.
Umar B. Bindir recorded 12 per cent, Saidu Hayatu Galadima polled 10 per cent, while Sen. Abdulaziz Murtala Nyako got nine per cent of the responses.
The report attributed Abbati’s lead to what it described as his accessibility, expanding grassroots structure, and growing support among youths and party mobilisers within the zone.
It added that although some aspirants showed strength in specific local government areas and demographic blocs, Abbati maintained a relatively steady performance across the district, which researchers described as evidence of “broad-based political acceptability.”
The findings further indicated that respondents who prioritised grassroots engagement, party unity, and constituency outreach were more inclined to support Abbati, while other aspirants enjoyed backing from respondents who placed emphasis on technocratic experience and political pedigree.
Observers who reviewed the survey described the contest as highly competitive, noting that several aspirants still command strong influence within the party.
However, they maintained that Abbati’s lead in the poll could significantly shape the dynamics of the APC primaries if the momentum is sustained.
Speaking on the methodology adopted for the survey, research consultant Dr. Ibrahim Yusuf described the exercise as a technically structured opinion poll based on standard research procedures.
He added that the use of layered sampling techniques, demographic balancing, and statistical validation tools enhanced the credibility of the findings as political activities ahead of the 2027 elections continue to gather momentum in Adamawa State.
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