A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Prof. Olufemi Otubanjo, has expressed concern over the growing cross-border dimension of insecurity in Nigeria, warning that armed groups displaced by conflicts across the Sahel are contributing to the country’s security challenges.
Otubanjo, who spoke during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ogun State, said terrorism and banditry in Nigeria have expanded beyond the activities of Boko Haram and now reflect a wider regional crisis fuelled by movements of insurgents across national borders.
According to him, ongoing conflicts in countries such as Sudan and other troubled parts of the Sahel have forced armed elements to seek refuge elsewhere, with some allegedly finding their way into Nigeria.
He noted that the influx of such groups has complicated the country’s security situation, as they exploit poorly governed and remote areas to establish temporary hideouts and carry out criminal operations.
“The nature of insurgency has changed. It is no longer limited to Boko Haram. We are seeing people fleeing conflicts from different regions and moving into Nigeria, where some engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping,” he said.
The international affairs scholar argued that the absence of effective government presence in certain communities has made it easier for criminal networks to operate.
He explained that these groups often take advantage of ungoverned spaces, launching attacks before disappearing when security agencies move in.
Otubanjo also identified climate change as a major factor behind the instability affecting parts of the Sahel.
He said environmental degradation, desert encroachment and declining economic opportunities have displaced thousands of people and intensified migration across the region.
He explained that many residents of affected areas have lost access to farmland and other sources of livelihood, forcing them to relocate in search of better economic prospects.
Despite the security concerns associated with migration, the professor cautioned against labelling all migrants from northern regions as criminals or terrorists.
According to him, a significant number of those relocating to southern cities are simply economic migrants escaping poverty, unemployment and the lack of investment opportunities in their home states.
Speaking on the Federal Government’s efforts to tackle insecurity, Otubanjo said it would be inaccurate to suggest that authorities were inactive.
He described the battle against terrorism and banditry as a long-term process that requires persistence, intelligence gathering and coordinated military operations.
He maintained that progress in counter-insurgency campaigns often occurs gradually and may not always be visible to the public, adding that security agencies continue to record successes in their operations.
The professor also paid tribute to members of the armed forces, noting that many personnel have made the ultimate sacrifice while confronting insurgents and criminal gangs across the country.
On concerns that diplomatic tensions between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel have contributed to insecurity, Otubanjo dismissed the claim, pointing out that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are grappling with insurgencies within their own territories.
He stressed the importance of sustained regional collaboration, particularly through the Multinational Joint Task Force, in tackling terrorism and other transnational security threats.
Commenting on Nigeria’s foreign relations, Otubanjo said the country continues to enjoy cordial ties with major global powers and has largely avoided state-to-state conflicts despite growing geopolitical rivalries worldwide.
He added that occasional diplomatic disagreements should not be interpreted as hostility, insisting that Nigeria’s relationships with nations such as the United States remain fundamentally friendly and cooperative.
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